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China’s share of global output ‘to fall’ by 2040

2040年中国占全球GDP份额将下降

China’s share of global output will fall over the next two decades, a leading consultancy is forecasting, upending the expectations of a generation that has only ever seen the Middle Kingdom rise inexorably in importance.

领先的咨询公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)预测,未来20年内,中国在全球产出中的份额将下降。对于迄今只见过中国地位不可阻挡地上升的一代人来说,这颠覆了他们的预期。The country will account for 17 per cent of global gross domestic product, measured on a purchasing power parity basis, by 2040, below its current 19 per cent weight, according to Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, having peaked at 20 per cent in the mid-2020s, as the first chart shows.

凯投宏观首席经济学家尼尔•希林(Neil Shearing)称,按购买力平价计算,到2020年代中期中国占全球国内生产总值(GDP)的比例将达到20%的峰值,到2040年将降为17%,低于目前的19%。

The projected small but noticeable reversal in China’s dramatic rise to prominence since it opened up to the world 40 years ago is largely driven by an expected 12 per cent decline in its working-age population by 2040, depicted in the second chart.

中国自40年前向全球开放以来迅速崛起,此次预测该增长趋势会出现小幅但明显的逆转主要基于一个预期:到2040年中国的劳动年龄人口将下降12%。

“China’s working age population peaked in 2013 and employment will start to shrink before long, possibly as soon as this year, which will become an increasing headwind to economic growth,” said Mr Shearing.

希林表示:“中国的劳动年龄人口在2013年达到顶峰,就业也将在不久之后开始萎缩,最早可能就在今年,这将成为经济增长面临的一股越来越强劲的逆风。”

In combination with other structural headwinds — such as an over-investment boom that has bolstered growth in recent years but led to too many resources being pumped into relatively unproductive parts of the economy — this means that China’s sustainable growth rate will fall to just 2 per cent by the late 2020s, Mr Shearing forecast.

希林预测,加上其他结构性逆风——例如过度投资热潮,这在近年来拉动了增长,但导致太多资源被投入经济中生产率相对低下的部分——这意味着到2020年代末期,中国的可持续增长率将降至仅2%。

Moreover, China’s rapidly ageing population, a result of its one-child policy, and its lack of private provision, means that, without reform, it is on course to spend 9.5 per cent of its GDP on pensions, a larger slice than in developed countries such as Japan, the UK and the US by 2050, as illustrated in the third chart, the consultancy calculates.

此外,由于独生子女政策导致中国人口迅速老龄化,加上来自私人部门的保障措施不足,意味着如果不进行改革,至2050年中国就必须将其GDP的9.5%用于支付养老金,大于日本、英国、美国等发达国家的养老金支出比例。

China has made dramatic strides since 1980, when its share of the global economy was only 2.3 per cent in PPP terms, as seen in the fourth chart, but Mr Shearing saw this progress petering out.

1980年,中国在全球经济中的份额以购买力平价计算仅为2.3%,此后取得了重大进展,如第四张图所示,但希林认为这一势头正在逐渐消失。

“We think China will fall off the path of rapid development laid down by the Asian growth stars of Japan, Korea and Taiwan,” he said. “Our forecasts suggest that China will remain much poorer than all the major advanced economies, with its GDP per capita staying around a third of that of the US.”

他说:“我们认为中国将脱离由日本、韩国和台湾等亚洲增长明星所铺设的快速发展道路。我们的预测表明中国将依然比所有主要发达经济体穷得多,其人均GDP将停留在美国的三分之一左右。”

Capital Economics’ analysis suggests a challenging future for many emerging market countries. While many economists and policymakers work on the assumption that, broadly, the developing world will gradually narrow the income gap with advanced economies thanks to faster growth in GDP per capita, the consultancy suggests that convergence will actually reverse over the next 20 years in some countries.

凯投宏观的分析显示许多新兴市场国家的未来都将面临挑战。虽然许多经济学家和政策制定者都有一个假设:大体上,由于人均GDP的快速增长,发展中国家将逐步缩小与发达经济体的国民收入差距,但凯投宏观表示在某些国家,这一收入趋同在未来20年内实际上将会逆转。

Mexico is seen as the only major Latin American country that is likely to increase its GDP per capita as a proportion of that of the US (in PPP terms) in the period to 2040, as shown in the final chart.

如最后那张图表所示,墨西哥被认为是唯一可能在2040年前提高其人均GDP——按购买力平价计算——相对美国比例的主要拉美国家。

Brazil and Argentina are both projected to go backwards by this measure, with productivity growth constrained by low investment rates, largely a result of weak savings rates, which also dictate that real interest rates are likely to remain high. Colombia’s outlook is darkened by the fact that “it is set to run out of crude oil, its key export, in around five years”, Mr Shearing said.

预计巴西和阿根廷在这一指标上都会倒退,其生产率增长受到了低投资率的制约,低投资率的主要原因是储蓄率疲软,这也决定了实际利率可能会保持高位。希林表示哥伦比亚的前景也一片暗淡,原因是“大概5年左右该国的原油就会耗光,这是其主要出口商品”。

Convergence is also expected to reverse in South Africa, while the rest of sub-Saharan Africa “will make little progress converging with more developed economies”, as productivity growth is hampered by low investment rates, weak institutions and a lack of continental integration.

南非与美国的国民收入差距预计也将重新拉大,而其余撒哈拉以南非洲地区“在缩小与较发达经济体的差距方面将进展很小”,因为低投资率、机构薄弱和区域融合不足阻碍了生产率的增长。

Although headline growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa may look solid, per capita incomes will rise less rapidly, with the region’s population forecast by the UN to rise from 1bn this year to 1.7bn in 2037.

撒哈拉以南非洲地区的整体经济增速可能看起来相当不错,但人均国民收入增速就一般了,联合国(UN)预测到2037年该地区的人口将增至17亿,今年为10亿。

Mr Shearing also forecast that per capita incomes in the Middle East and north Africa would be flat as a share of those in the US over the coming two decades, with the sole exception of Morocco, which has successfully positioned itself as a manufacturing hub for Europe.

希林还预测未来20年内,中东和北非的人均国民收入与美国人均国民收入之比将保持不变,唯一的例外是摩洛哥,摩洛哥已经成功地将自己打造为欧洲的制造业中心。

Income convergence is also expected to stall in Russia, due to a poor business environment and the likelihood that oil prices will trend down in real terms, although the rest of eastern Europe may do better as its integration in western European supply chains allows incomes to rise relative to those to the west. Turkey is predicted to be another bright spot, thanks to rising labour force participation, particularly of women.

预计俄罗斯与美国的国民收入差距也将停止缩小,原因是营商环境恶劣以及实际油价可能会下降,不过东欧其他国家可能情况会更好,因为融入西欧供应链令这些国家的国民收入与西方国家差距缩小。由于劳动参与率上升,尤其是女性的劳动参与率上升,土耳其预计将成为另一个亮点。

Most of the success stories are likely to be in Asia, though, with India forecast to almost double its share of global GDP from 8 per cent to 15 per cent by 2040, and the rest of emerging Asia (bar China) likely to expand from 10 per cent to 12 per cent.
不过绝大多数成功案例可能都在亚洲,预计至2040年印度在全球GDP中所占比例将翻一番,从8%增加到15%,其他亚洲新兴经济体(除中国外)可能会从10%升至12%。

Mr Shearing expected India to sustain annual growth of 5-7 per cent in the next two decades, allowing its economy to potentially triple in size.

希林预计未来20年印度将保持5%到7%的年增长率,其经济规模可能扩大两倍。

India is on track to usurp China as the nation with the largest labour force by 2025, according to the UN, while female employment is tipped to rise from its current very low levels. High savings and investment rates and a gradual process of structural reform should also help.

根据联合国的数据,到2025年,印度有望超过中国成为劳动力最多的国家,而印度的女性就业率预计将从目前非常低的水平上升。此外,高储蓄率和投资率,以及渐进的结构性改革也应该能提供一些帮助。

Vietnam is also predicted to make progress, thanks to an improving business environment, political stability, low wages and the continued migration of low-end manufacturing from China.

预计越南也将取得进展,原因是营商环境改善、政治稳定、低薪资水平以及中国低端制造业的持续迁入。

“If you look at World Bank projections, and go and speak to clients and get a sense of what the market is thinking, most people expect that emerging markets will converge. That’s what they do,” Mr Shearing said.

希林说:“如果你看看世界银行(World Bank)的预测,再去与客户谈一谈,了解市场的想法,大多数人都预计新兴市场与发达世界的差距将缩小。他们的工作就是这个。

“It works fine in theory, but when you look in practice, the second half of the 1990s and the 2000s [when most EMs did see strong growth] were really just an anomaly. It’s not the norm that EM converges. They didn’t converge in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s or indeed the 1980s.

“这在理论上是成立的,但当你看一看实际情况,上世纪90年代后半段和2000年代(当时大多数新兴经济体的确实现了强劲增长)实际上只是反常现象。新兴市场与发达世界的差距缩小并不是常态。在上世纪50年代、60年代、70年代乃至80年代,它们与发达世界的差距都没有缩小。

“We are reverting back to historical norms. Some EMs will have bursts of catch-up growth, others will run into structural problems that slow growth and some will go backwards.”

“我们正在回归历史常态。一些新兴经济体将实现一阵阵赶超式增长,其他一些新兴经济体将会遭遇导致增长放缓的结构性问题,还有一些新兴经济体将会倒退。”

Not everyone agrees that China’s share of global output will start to decline any time soon, however. Adam Slater, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said he was “surprised” by the forecast, with his own calculations pointing to China having a 24.7 per cent share of global GDP, on a PPP basis, by 2040, taking its income per head from 28.6 per cent of US levels at present to 54.9 per cent by 2040.

然而,并不是每个人都认同中国在全球产出中的比例将很快下降的观点。牛津经济(Oxford Economics)首席经济学家亚当•斯莱特(Adam Slater)表示,凯投宏观的预测让他感到“惊讶”,他自己的计算结果是,到2040年,以购买力平价来衡量,中国在全球GDP中的比例将为24.7%。目前中国的人均国民收入相当于美国水平的28.6%,到2040年这个数字将升至54.9%。

His figures are based on Chinese growth only slowing to 4 per cent by the early 2030s and 3.5 per cent by 2040, comfortably above the 2 per cent rate Capital Economics is pencilling in by the late 2020s.

斯莱特的数据基于中国的经济增长率到2030年代初仅将放缓至4%,到2040年将放缓至3.5%。这远高于凯投宏观在使用的预测值,即到2020年代末中国的经济增长率会放缓至2%。

“If [growth] falls to 2 per cent [soon], it would be an unusually early decline,” Mr Slater said. “While this scenario is not out of the question it’s quite a big call for it to happen to a country like China at this level of per capita income.

“如果(增长很快)降至2%,这将是异乎寻常的提前降速。”斯莱特说,“尽管这种情况并非绝对不可能,但认为一个像中国这样的国家,会在这样的人均国民收入水平上发生这种情况,是相当不寻常的假设。”

“It’s not an implausible scenario but it’s at the bottom of the range and you have to be fairly pessimistic to get there.”

“这种情况并非毫无发生的可能,但它处于区间的底端,只有抱有相当悲观的看法才会得出这种结论。”

Oxford’s analysis is based on a 10 per cent decline in the Chinese workforce by 2040, slightly smaller than Capital’s 12 per cent, with Mr Slater arguing that the evidence from Japan is that the size of the labour force can be “more elastic” than is commonly thought, with Japan having seen a sharp rise in participation from the 65-75 age group.

牛津经济的分析基于到2040年中国的劳动力将会减少10%,这比凯投宏观的12%略少一些。斯莱特认为,参考日本的情况,劳动力规模可能会比通常认为的“更具弹性”。在日本,65岁至75岁人群的劳动参与度大幅提高了。

As for the mooted spending on pensions, he added: “if it’s as crippling as that, they would change the system, I would think”.

至于凯投宏观提出的养老金支出问题,斯莱特补充说:“如果负担真的那么重,我的想法是他们会改变制度的。”

While Mr Slater accepted there had been a degree of misallocation of resources in China, he argued there had been a lot of efficient investment in new industries as well. More broadly, the country still has “tremendous catch-up opportunity”, due to its still relatively lowly income levels, he said.

尽管斯莱特认同中国存在一定程度的资源错配,他认为中国在新产业上也有很多富有成效的投资。斯莱特说,整体上,由于中国的国民收入水平仍然相对较低,中国依然拥有“巨大的赶超机会”。

Hung Tran, executive director of the Institute of International Finance, an industry body, took a middle path, arguing that “it is difficult to say at what point China will start to shrink [as a share of the global economy] but the phenomenon of China getting bigger every year will probably come to a plateau and then start to decline over time,” adding “they will probably get old before they get rich”.

行业组织国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)的执行总裁洪川(Hung Tran)采取了中间立场,认为“很难说中国(占全球经济的比例)将从什么时候开始缩小,但中国年年扩张的现象很可能达到一个平台期,然后开始随着时间推移而下滑”,并补充说,“他们很可能未富先老”。

Capital Economics’ view that broader emerging market convergence is unlikely has more support.

凯投宏观关于新兴市场不太可能整体缩小与发达世界的差距的观点得到了更多支持。

Tran argued that EMs’ growth rates “will slow over time,” following the pattern set by mature economies, potentially trending towards 2 per cent growth rates by 2060.

洪川提出,与成熟经济体身上的规律类似,新兴市场经济体的增长率“将会随着时间推移放缓”,到2060年有可能趋向于2%的增长率。

With the exception of India and most of Africa, most emerging market countries now have “an ageing population issue,” he said, with the growth rate of their working-age population slowing.

洪川提出,与成熟经济体身上的规律类似,新兴市场经济体的增长率“将会随着时间推移放缓”,到2060年有可能趋向于2%的增长率。

Mr Slater argued that “convergence is not something that happens by magic. Argentina is a good example of that, it has been deconverging for a century. There are also countries in Africa where that is true, that were better off in relative terms in the 1960s than they are now,” such as the Democratic Republic of Congo.

斯莱特提出“差距的缩小并不是像魔术一般无缘无故就会发生的事情。阿根廷就是一个很好的例子,一个世纪以来,阿根廷与发达世界的差距一直在扩大。非洲也有一些国家是这样的,相对而言它们在上世纪60年代比现在更富裕。”

Mr Slater argued that “convergence is not something that happens by magic. Argentina is a good example of that, it has been deconverging for a century. There are also countries in Africa where that is true, that were better off in relative terms in the 1960s than they are now,” such as the Democratic Republic of Congo.

斯莱特提出“差距的缩小并不是像魔术一般无缘无故就会发生的事情。阿根廷就是一个很好的例子,一个世纪以来,阿根廷与发达世界的差距一直在扩大。非洲也有一些国家是这样的,相对而言它们在上世纪60年代比现在更富裕。”

“Most of the narrative is around a Chinese or Indian or African century,” said Mr Shearing. “But it’s hard for emerging markets to emulate China and Korea through manufacturing growth because manufacturing’s share of global GDP is inexorably falling, so the ability to grow and develop by producing stuff is falling as well.”

“大多数讨论都是围绕中国世纪、印度世纪或者非洲世纪展开的。”希林说,“但新兴市场很难通过制造业增长来效仿中国和韩国,因为制造业在全球GDP中所占比重正无法阻挡地下降,因此通过制造产品来增长和发展也越来越困难。”

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