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Powell warns prolonged shutdown could hurt US economy
鲍威尔:政府长时间停摆可能伤害美国经济

A prolonged government shutdown could start to take a toll on the US economy, the Federal Reserve chairman has warned, as the impasse over funding between Donald Trump and congressional Democrats neared the end of its third week. 

美联储(Federal Reserve)主席警告称,政府长时间停摆可能开始对美国经济造成不利影响。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)总统与国会民主党人在拨款问题上的僵局快满三周了。

At a lunchtime event in Washington, Jay Powell said that past government shutdowns had been fairly shortlived affairs that did not leave much of a mark on the economy. But if the current one lasts too long it could begin to have a noticeable impact, he said.

在华盛顿举行的一个午餐活动中,杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)表示,以往的政府停摆都较为短暂,对经济没有造成太大影响。他说,如果这次停摆持续太久,可能会开始产生明显的影响。

His words came as the president cited the shutdown in cancelling a trip to Davos, Switzerland that was planned for later this month, in a sign of how entrenched the battle over federal funding has become. Mr Trump on Thursday travelled to Texas to reiterate his demands for congressional funding for a border wall, a key sticking point in talks over the budget. 

在他发表上述言论之际,特朗普总统以政府停摆为由,取消了原定于本月晚些时候前往瑞士达沃斯的行程。这一迹象表明,围绕联邦拨款的斗争已到了难以化解的地步。特朗普周四前往德克萨斯州,重申他要求国会为修建边境隔离墙拨款——这是预算谈判的关键症结所在。

“Because of the Democrats intransigence on Border Security and the great importance of Safety for our Nation, I am respectfully cancelling my very important trip to Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum,” said Mr Trump, who is considering declaring a national emergency at the border to bypass Congress and secure funding to build the wall. 

“鉴于民主党人在边境安全问题上的不妥协态度,且安全对我们国家非常重要,我郑重地取消了前往瑞士达沃斯参加世界经济论坛的重要行程。”特朗普表示。他正在考虑就边境问题宣布全国进入紧急状态,以绕过国会获得修建边境墙的资金。

The Fed chairman was asked about the impact of the shutdown at the Economic Club of Washington DC. He was interviewed by David Rubenstein, the co-founder of Carlyle Group, where Mr Powell worked before his time at the central bank.

美联储主席在华盛顿经济俱乐部(Economic Club of Washington DC)被问及政府停摆会有什么影响。鲍威尔接受了凯雷集团(Carlyle Group)联合创始人戴维•鲁宾斯坦(David Rubenstein)的采访。在央行任职之前,鲍威尔曾在凯雷工作。

“A longer shutdown is something we haven’t had,” said Mr Powell. “If we had an extended shutdown then I do think that would show up in the data pretty clearly.”

“我们从未经历过政府长时间停摆,”鲍威尔,“如果政府停摆时间拖长,我确实认为,其影响将在数据中非常清楚地显现出来。”

The Fed chairman argued that an extended shutdown would also make it harder for the Fed to get a clear view of the economy’s performance, since some government agencies that are responsible for key economic indicators have been affected by the closures.

鲍威尔认为,政府长时间停摆还会导致美联储难以清楚地了解经济表现,因为一些负责关键经济指标的政府机构已经受到了停摆的影响。

If the shutdown continues through the weekend it will become the longest on record. Analysts at JPMorgan have estimated that each week of the shutdown will trim annualised growth in gross domestic product by about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. However, they added: “There also are risks that the current shutdown interacts with other events to generate a more meaningful adverse change in sentiment.”

如果停摆持续到周末,这将成为有记录以来最久的一次。摩根大通(JPMorgan)的分析师们估计,停摆每持续一周,美国国内生产总值(GDP)的年化增长率就将减少约0.1至0.2个百分点。然而,他们补充道:“此外,目前政府停摆的状况也有可能与其他事件产生相互影响,从而导致更消极的情绪变化。”

Mr Powell was also asked about Mr Trump’s repeated criticisms of the Fed and its rate rises, and the chairman reiterated that central bank will not be taking political considerations into account. However, he signalled he was open to meeting with the president, even if no invitation had yet been received.

鲍威尔还被问及怎么看待特朗普对美联储及其加息举措的反复批评,他重申美联储不会考虑政治因素。不过他表示愿意与总统会面,虽然目前还没有收到邀请。

“I’m not aware of any Fed chair turning down an invitation from the White House, nor do I think that would be appropriate,” he said. 

“我没听说过哪个美联储主席会拒绝白宫的邀请,我也认为那样做不合适。”他说。

Mr Powell said the US economy remained in solid shape, but that financial markets are signalling a greater concern about risks to the expansion. Signs of slowing growth in China were a particular focus at the central bank, he added. 

鲍威尔表示,美国经济仍处于稳定状态,但目前金融市场对经济扩张所面临的风险表现出了更强烈的担忧。他补充道,中国经济增长放缓的迹象是美国央行特别关注的问题。

In that context, the Fed was going to watch “patiently and carefully” as it gauges how the economy will evolve and which narrative is borne out in 2019.

在这些背景下,美联储将“耐心而谨慎地”观察经济走势,以及2019年哪种判断会得到证实。

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